Movie fans love to argue. Whether it’s a fight about fandoms like DC vs Marvel, polarizing opinions on a casting choice, or skepticism about, say, Vin Diesel’s ability to catch a car thrown at him, the debates are as endless as they are frivolous and fun. But there is one film event that ignites debates like no other: The Oscars. With the Academy Awards, controversy seems inevitable. In the past few years alone they’ve had to address their lack of inclusion of diversity in the wake of #OscarsSoWhite, correct themselves after awarding Best Picture to the wrong film, and forgo hosts entirely after having to jettison a problematic one.

But the Oscars enduring legacy lately has not been about the scandals, it’s been about how consistently they seem to get things… wrong. The Academy is well known for its vanilla taste to the point that “Oscar-bait” is a genre unto itself. When talking about the voting body that really thought Green Book was the best film of the year, the bar is set unfortunately low. So with that in mind, and with the 2020 ceremony right around the corner, here are eight chances that the Oscars have to get on the right side of history this year that they will almost undoubtedly skip. All odds per Gold Derby’s panel of experts.

The Lighthouse for Best Cinematography

The Academy has a long history of ignoring horror films, and A24’s movies as a whole, and this year the only shot anything from the genre has is Jarin Blaschke’s work on The Lighthouse. It’s one of the best films of the year and its surreal and reality-bending visuals are one of the very best things about it. In a year where the Academy snubbed films like Us and Midsommar, it would be a huge win for the genre at large to see Robert Eggers masterpiece take home some hardware. Of course, it isn’t going to happen because 1917’s “one take” style will very likely follow Birdman to Oscars glory. When given the choice, Academy voters will always fall in line for familiar prestige over something genuinely new and exciting.

The Lighthouse odds: 9/2

1917’s odds: 16/5

Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker for Best Original Score

John Williams has produced more iconic movie music than anyone else, and has a towering 52 Oscar nominations to show for it. But the last time he won? Schindler’s List in 1994. He’s long overdue for his sixth statue, and since he’s declared that The Rise of Skywalker will be his last foray into the Star Wars universe, wouldn’t it be fitting to send him off with a parting gift? Williams’ work on the movie was one of the few things that everyone seemed to agree was good (alongside Adam Driver’s performance), but he’ll face an uphill battle against the current favorite… Joker. Yikes.

Star Wars odds: 9/2

Joker odds: 82/25

Ad Astra for Best Sound Mixing

Another criminally underappreciated film in 2019 was James Gray’s Ad Astra. In a just world, it would be competing in a litany of categories, but in this unfortunate reality, it only scored one nomination. Ad Astra’s slow-burn tension is boosted greatly by its masterful use of sound, taking full advantage of both cacophonous rocket launches and the eerie near-silence of space travel.

But as with most categories, the Academy has a fairly boring and repetitive history, and here it’s one of awarding war films with sound Oscars, so this one will in all likelihood will belong to 1917 as well, which is by no means undeserving of recognition, but when considering the BEST use of sound it’s hard to make a case for anything less original than Ad Astra.

Ad Astra odds: 9/2

1917 odds: 17/5

Cynthia Erivo for Best Lead Actress

Cynthia Erivo has been on a roll these last few years with big roles in Bad Times at the El Royale, The Outsider, and the upcoming season of Genius. Now she’s an Oscar nominee for Harriet and the lone acting nominee of color at that so it goes without saying that this very white awards show could take a step in the right direction by awarding Erivo’s work over the heavily favored Renee Zellweger. However, it’s impossible to ignore that the lone person of color the Academy nominated was for the role of a slave, seemingly one of the only times the Academy looks at performers of color, the others being “something that makes us feel better about racism” and “Denzel Washington.” Trevor Noah put it best when he said “Congratulations to Cynthia Erivo, that’s exciting. Although, it is kind of predictable that it was for playing a slave. And I’m not saying she didn’t deserve it, but just imagine if every white actor that was nominated got it for playing a supervisor at Whole Foods. White people, you’re more than just that!”

Cynthia Erivo odds: 9/2

Renee Zellweger odds: 16/5

Saoirse Ronan for Best Lead Actress

Another phenomenal option to usurp the Judy star’s would-be crown would be giving Saoirse Ronan a long overdue win. Little Women scored six nominations, including Best Picture (and notably not Best Director), but it has little chance to leave with any awards outside of Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Costume Design. So if the Academy is going to snub Greta Gerwig’s work (and every other non-male director for that matter), why not rectify that by awarding her muse? None of that is to say that Ronan doesn’t deserve the award on her own merits, because she certainly does, her vibrant performance is the emotional core that Little Women is built around.

Saoirse Ronan odds: 9/2

I Lost My Body for Best Animated Feature

In the short history of the Best Animated Feature award (created in 2001), Pixar has taken the trophy home nine times, a whopping 47% of all wins. That percentage swells to 63% when you include Disney’s wins as well. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse won last year, but to find a non-Disney/Pixar winner before then you have to go back to 2011.

If the Academy wants to make a statement they should go for Netflix’s stunning I Lost My Body, which is not only the most original film with the most interesting animation in the category, but it would also be a boost for the Oscars sorely lacking diversity with its multiracial cast.

Toy Story 4 odds: 69/20

I Lost My Body odds: 4/1

Knives Out for Best Original Screenplay

Like many others in the grand tradition of films too good to ignore but too cool for the Oscars to know what to do with, Knives Out received only a single nomination or Best Original Screenplay. Knives Out is one of the very best films of the year, and its insanely clever and entertaining script stands out even among this list of deserving nominees. It will face an uphill battle though, as other single nominees haven’t won the award since 1957’s Designing Women, so the likely victor here will be Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Once Upon A Time in Hollywood odds: 71/20

Knives Out odds: 9/2

Parasite for Best Picture

Now for the big one. The best film made in 2019 was Bong-Joon Ho’s Parasite. It’s a masterful blend of so many genres, a timely and viciously biting piece of satire, and a flat-out gorgeous film to look at. Put simply, Parasite is better at being a movie than everything else it’s in competition with, and at 6/1 it even has the second-best odds of taking home the top prize.

That said, it probably won’t happen. No foreign-language film has ever won Best Picture, so what hope does this innovative and subversive film from South Korea really have of being recognized by the voting body that just fell over itself handing awards to Green Book? In all likelihood, this award will be going to 1917, which is an excellent movie in its own right, but it’s no Parasite.

Parasite odds: 6/1

1917 odds: 11/2

Next: Academy Awards: The 10 Movies To Win The Most Oscars (& How Many They Won)